Here’s long-time Rink writer Luke with his take on what could be ahead as the Caps look to address an area of need…

The Washington Capitals front office have had a very busy week. First, they swang for the fences to acquire top six wingers in Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch. They also made some minor trades, moving Hendrix Lapierre and Declan Chisholm out. Then they had the draft picking up big, young center Oliver Suvanto along with three other new prospects. But there’s still one more box to check and that’s a right handed defensemen that General Manager Chris Patrick has mentioned a few times this offseason. 

So who could be some names they could be targeting? I figured they would go the trade route, but Patrick is quoted as saying they’ll look at free agency to fill that hole. Here is an excerpt from a Pierre LeBrun article from June 26th:

The hard part, as is so often the case, is trying to figure out what kind of defensemen they need because right now it’s unclear. Patrick mentioned that they are going to miss Rasmus Sandin because he’s a top four player, so the logical thought is to assume they will look for a top four player, but the comments after the draft made it seem like they kind of just want a stop gap person, probably meaning a bottom pairing player that they can sit if need be once Sandin is back. So it will be a fine line they walk: they want someone cheap, that can play good minutes, but is also comfortable to sit if needed when Sandin gets back. That’s tough to find, but we’ll look at both top four defensemen and bottom pairing defensemen just in case.

Note: All contract projections are provided by AFP Analytics. The Player Cards are provided by Evolving Wild, and the Isolated Impacts are provided by HockeyViz.

It’s an easy guess to see who is first on the list. I believe everyone was surprised when the Caps traded away long term Cap and leader John Carlson to Anaheim in early March. It was the smart move to make at the time but it does leave a hole the Caps are now trying to fill. Even though Carlson is 36, he’s still a legit top four RHD and is by far the best player on this list. Even better, he knows the system and the players, so he’s literally the perfect candidate. 

Rumors are that Carlson is looking for a contract starting at $10M, which is a lot, but the AAV shouldn’t concern the Caps, they currently have over $14M in cap space with two spaces available. One of them could very well go to Alexander Ovechkin, and it’s unknown how much he’ll ask for, but I imagine he’ll take whatever is left if Carlson signs. The Caps can also make room by sending down Dylan McIlrath ($850k) and putting Rasmus Sandin ($4.6M) on LTIR.

The issue is a player traded away at the deadline then signing back with that team that traded them away in the following free agency is extremely rare. It has happened only 11 times the last 20 years, only three times the last 10 years, the most recent being Nick Bjugstad in 2023 with the Arizona Coyotes. So the chances of Carlson coming back are very low. But he does have the pull of having his family and friends here, knowing the organization and area, and with the Caps adding two big names in Kyrou and Tuch, the Caps look very formidable. It wouldn’t be out of the question to see him return. Or he could be very offended that the Caps would ever trade him away in the first place and won’t do them any favors. 

The Hurricanes traded for his rights and it would be a huge gut punch if he signed there, but Carolina only spent a 6th round pick on his rights so it’s not definite he will sign there. They could have just made a Hail Mary chance to sign him and if it doesn’t work out they are just out a 6th round pick so we’ll see where it goes. 

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Rasmus Andersson didn’t do himself any favors with his playoff run on the Vegas Golden Knights where he had some shaky results. Granted, teams that join a new team at the deadline, tend not to play well due to coming into a new system down the stretch when the pressure is high, but he also didn’t have a great season with the Calgary Flames before joining Vegas. Overall, it was a season that Rasmus probably wants to move on from.

But let me talk about his positives. He’s a very smooth, powerful skater that plays with an edge and is a complete ass on the ice as the Caps know from playing against him. Him and Tom Wilson have been in plenty of after-whistle conversations. Adding that edge and skating ability to the Caps would be a huge plus. He also has some great offensive instincts in his game. Pairing him with Martin Fehervary could be a great match for him and create a deadly second pair. 

The issue is going to be the contract. He will be 30 in October and AFP predicts he’ll cost about $8.7M over a six year span and with how thin the free agency market will be, especially after Carlson signs somewhere, it wouldn’t surprise me if the money and/or term went up. Do the Caps want to get into another longer term free agent signing after doing it with Alex Tuch? If Rasmus was willing to come in around four years I could see the Caps taking the chance, otherwise, I don’t know. Unless they are very confident that he will really fit in and will stay a top four defensemen through the whole contract or close to it, I can see the Caps letting someone else take the chance. Then again, GMCP has been aggressive so far, maybe he’ll continue that by signing Andersson.

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This will ruffle some feathers, but what about Jacob Trouba? Caps fans know all about Trouba’s antics when he played for the Rangers. They might also know him as being a player that throws some of the dirtiest and borderline hits. Look no further than this past season when Trouba ran through Ryan Leonard, knocking him out of commission for nearly three weeks, just as Leonard was heating up (eight points his previous six games). But as Tom Wilson fans, us Caps fans can’t really complain too much. 

Trouba is 32 years old (February birthday), which is old but not too old, but his analytics have been ugly for the last four years and with a contract that is expected to be around $6.4M for four years, I don’t think the Caps would be interested unless they think they can get him back to his old ways, but at 32, it’s doubtful. Maybe if the Caps were looking for a physical third pairing defensemen to pair with Cole Hutson, I could see it, but there are probably cheaper options out there to do that.

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For instance, a player like that could be Andrew Peeke. Peeke has been playing steady second pairing minutes for the Blue Jackets and Bruins the last five seasons. He isn’t a sexy player in terms of impact but he’s pretty consistent and very reliable on the defensive side of the ice. He’s only 28 (birthday in March) so no worry about him hitting a hard decline or anything like that. He’s in his prime so his contract will work out perfectly fine. 

His next contract is predicted to be four years at a $4.1M cap hit, which is very good for a defensive defensemen playing on the second pair. Again, he’s not a super sexy pick so maybe the Caps want someone that can give more of a two-way game, but he isn’t the worst option to have if the Caps want to go that route to have someone play with Hutson, though $4.1M is a lot for a player to sit once Sandin returns. But at 6’4” 214lbs he would fair well and be able to balance out Hutson’s game.

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A name that is very interesting to me is Nick Blankenburg. Who, you might ask? Blankenburg is a small defenseman (5’9” 176lbs) but he’s played with three teams the last three seasons and has put up strong analytics. This past season on a bad Nashville Predators team, he played second pairing minutes with some top pairing minutes and did very well. He ended the season with Colorado and did well there as well. 

The size might be a concern with the Caps, but he would be a low risk signing, with a projected cap hit of $4M per for two years. That could be too rich for someone they might have to sit when Sandin gets back and they also might want a bigger player to play along with Hutson since he’s also on the smaller size. Or maybe Liljegren moves down with Hutson and a guy like Blankburg can play with Fehervary. Either way, Blankenburg might be the best RHD on the market after Carlson and Andersson, and that might be all the Caps need to know to sign him. They can deal with player positioning as the season goes along. That’s certainly what is going to happen with the forwards this upcoming season. 

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But why are Caps looking elsewhere when their answer could be our very own Trevor van Riemsdyk? I don’t think I have to sell you on him. Trevor was a very reliable second pairing guy for most of his career with the Caps. He might not be that now, but at worst he’s a very good bottom pairing defensive defenseman that knows the system. Why not just re-sign him if they want that super reliable bottom pairing guy? 

His contract will only be at two years at $2.3M per. That seems perfectly reasonable for a guy that is so loved in the locker room and can do well when playing and can sit when he needs to. His only true flaw is he’s about to turn 35 in a month but again, he won’t cost much and already knows the system. Might be worth just it to bring him back, but if that was the case they would have already. 

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If the Caps don’t want to get wrapped up in a player like Trouba or Peeke for too long or pay that much, but want that physical presense, than Vincent Desharnais might be an option. He’s been a quiet player for most of his career, but at 30 he put up a fantastic season on the Sharks, becoming a defensive stalwart, getting a lot of defensive zone starts and coming out on top, granted, he flirted mostly with third pairing time. It’s also a bonus he’s fantastic on the penalty kill. 

He’d be a very cheap option, coming in at two years $2M per, so the risk is very low. But like some of the names I brought up, maybe he’s just a really good third pairing option for Hutson to play with. Desharnais is 6’7” 225lbs so he can play that defensive game letting Hutson move up the ice and do what he does best. It’s a great pairing because Vincent is a terrible puck mover. But again, do Caps want to do that or want someone that is hands down top four? If they just want that person to play defense for Hutson then sit when Sandin returns, then Desharnais makes the most sense. 

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Another name out there is 31 year old Connor Clifton. He’s not the biggest defensemen at 6’0” 196lbs but he plays a good defensive style of game, throwing a lot of hits, stopping puck cycles and moving the puck out. He would work well with Hutson. His contract is expected to be about two years at $1.8M per year. That’s very doable and easy to sit if they need to for Sandin.

He was fantastic in Boston, went to Buffalo for two years while they were still bad and was fine, not great,, but then found his game with a good Penguins team. This might show he thrives when on a good team, meaning maybe Caps are getting a second pair guy for cheap. It’s also a bonus that his most recent team was the Penguins, meaning he could have some useful info on the Caps biggest rival. 

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Let me throw a weird one out there: Dylan Coghlan. Who? He’s kind of a journeyman. He started with Vegas, went to Carolina, then Winnipeg, and back to Vegas this past season. He has not played a lot of games the past three seasons, just 10 total, spending most of his career in the AHL, but he got 13 starts in this year's playoff with Vegas and put up phenomenal analytics, being top three in among Vegas defensemen in the big categories. 

Vegas Golden Knights Defensemen Relative Stats at 5v5 in the Playoffs via Natural Stat Trick:

Now, I understand people saying, “The dude is 28, no way he’s some hidden top four guy”, which is fair, but let me point you to Sam Malinski for Colorado. Undrafted and did much of nothing until this season, at the age of 27, where he shined as one of the best impact defensemen. Or what about Darren Raddysh having a career year at the age of 30. Doghlan could be worth the shot.

Best of all, he’ll be cheap as hell. His contract is predicted at one year $850k. That’s nothing. He’s a big guy 6’2” 207lbs that just showed some real flash in the playoffs. It’s about as low risk, high reward as you get. He’s a guy you can easily sit with when Sandin needs to come back without feeling bad about it. You could even put him on waivers if things don’t work out and he’ll really help the Bears. 

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There’s another layer below this for players like Nick Jensen, Troy Stecher, Radko Gudas, and Colin Miller, among others but at that point you might as well grab one of the names I mentioned above. These players are fine but don’t have much more else to give. You might as well take a chance on Coghlan at that point and bet on his upside. 

I was wondering why Patrick made such a clear statement about trying to fill this hole in free agency and not trade, but looking around at the trade targets there’s not many if any impactful right handed defensemen available. Jordan Spence and Michael Kesselring were very interesting targets for the Caps but Spence re-signed with Ottawa and Kesserling was moved to San Jose. Brandon Carlo was also traded but he’s probably not a top four defensemen anymore. Filip Hronek, Kaedan Korczak, Justin Barron and even Rasmus Ristolainen (who is good now) are very intriguing names but there names aren’t officially out there so it’s not worth really digging into, especially GMCP is saying they are focused on free agency. 

So with all of that said, it comes down to what the Caps want to add. Do they want to add a legit top four player? Then Carlson and Andersson are the only real known options in free agency. The next layer are players like Trouba and Peeke but those players will cost a lot more and they might need to sit when Sandin returns. Blankenburg is young and looks really good but again, will he sign just to potentially sit at some point? The last layer are players like TvR, Desharnais, Clifton and Coghlan. They are players that will be cheap to add and you won’t feel bad about them sitting when the Caps top six are healthy. Their ceiling might not be that high but if the Caps are just looking for a warm body to play with Hutson for four months and have the ability to jump in and be good when needed, then it’s most likely the Caps' addition comes from this pool of players. 

If that’s the criteria, then I think Desharnais and TvR are the best options. But if they are the best option then why isn’t TvR signed right now? So do we look at the top four players again? Like I said at the beginning, it’s very tough to gauge exactly what the Caps want to do with their defensive add in free agency. I guess we’ll find out in just a couple days when free agency opens on Wednesday and they’ll have options.